На английском, лень переводить. Когда будет не лень, добавлю цифр и приведу в более божеский вид.
For simplicity, I take everything to the limit right away.
Flow of causation
1. The entire process is driven by China moving its economy from export orientation to internal consumption orientation, and USA reaction to it. This involves structural changes within China (more on that below), but internationally this means less foreign trade by China, less division of labour, less production chain globalization => huge loss of profits by many international players, especially US ones. Also, this leads to China becoming number 1 in the world, which seems to be unacceptable to the US politically.
2. To slow that down or even stop it, US employs, among other things, sanctions, which in effect means weaponization of the USD as international unit of account and transactional currency.
3. This leads to increasing transaction costs in USD on the economic side of things, and to political and national security necessity to de-dollarize their international trade by countries that are subject to sanctions – China and Russia in particular, and other countries in general due to increase in costs and risks (they impose sanctions on a whim these days).
Balance sheets on micro level
1. Use of USD in transactions by non-US entities can be viewed as a substitution of part of the money mass utilized in these countries by USD.
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